Will The Ceasefire In Gaza Hold?

On Sunday, after a delay of several hours, the long-hoped-for ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas finally went into effect. At around 5:00 p.m. in Gaza City, uniformed Hamas militants appeared in Saraya Square to initiate the transfer of three female Israeli hostages—Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher, and Emily Damari—to the hands of the Red Cross, and then on to Israel. In the plaza dubbed “Hostages Square” in central Tel Aviv, a crowd stood in electric silence, watching the scene unfold on a large-screen TV. Meanwhile, in the occupied West Bank, the Israel Prison Service began preparing for the release of ninety Palestinian female and child prisoners that night, among them Khalida Jarrar, a leading member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and Shatha Jarabaa, a twenty-four-year-old from Ramallah arrested for social media posts. In Gaza, millions of Palestinians displaced during Israel’s catastrophic assault started the journey back to the ruins of their homes to search for the remains of loved ones beneath the rubble, accompanied by the persistent hum of Israeli drones.

The agreement is to unfold in three phases. In the first six-week phase, Israel will withdraw its forces from the heart of the devastated territory to the kilometer-wide buffer zone near the separation barrier, established through the systematic demolition of Palestinian houses. In exchange for thirty-three hostages held by Hamas—children, women, the elderly, and the injured—Israel will release more than 1,000 Palestinians (thirty Palestinian detainees for each civilian, and fifty Palestinians for each female soldier). As the first phase proceeds, the two sides will begin negotiating the subsequent two phases, during which the remaining Israeli hostages, alive and dead, will be released and Israeli troops will withdraw fully from the strip.