Will Harris Lose The Election Over Gaza?

A deeper dive into the polls does indeed show that Harris’s inability to take a stand against Israeli violence can indeed lead to a Trump victory.

Many articles have speculated generally on how Muslim voters, alienated by U.S. support for Israel’s Gaza invasion, and now Israel’s attacks on civilian life in Lebanon, could decide the election in several swing states. Without interpretive data, they do little more than give Harris supporters one more thing to worry about. A deeper dive into the polls does indeed show that Harris’s inability to take a stand against Israeli violence can indeed lead to a Trump victory. And it certainly underscores the need for a strong response from the Harris-Walz ticket.

Vice President Harris is pictured during an interview with CNN's Dana Bash in Savannah, Ga., on Thursday — her first in-depth, on-the-record conversation with a journalist since becoming the Democratic presidential nominee. Will Lanzoni/CNN

Many Muslim voters have abandoned the Democratic ticket for third party candidates. An August 29th poll conducted by the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed Harris with 29.4 percent of the Muslim vote, Jill Stein 29.1 percent, Trump 11.2 percent, Cornel West 4.2 percent, the Libertarian Party <1 percent, and 16.5 percent undecided. Nationally Stein polls at only 1.2 percent and West <1 percent while Undecideds account for about 3-4 percent. And before Biden withdrew from the race, he was polling 12 percent among Muslims. Clearly:

Muslims are abandoning Harris in five key states where they could sway the election. Stein leads Harris: 35-29 percent in Arizona, 44-39 percent in Wisconsin, 43-17 percent in Georgia, and 40-12 percent in Michigan and in Pennsylvania trails Harris 37-25 percent.
Harris has far more intrinsic support among Muslims than Biden did when he withdrew.
Muslims recognize that Trump is toxic to their interests.
Stein, West, and Undecided voters represent 49.8 percent of Muslim voters, a vast differential from the relatively miniscule nationwide percentages. This 50 percent would almost certainly vote overwhelmingly for Harris were she to oppose our Israel/Gaza policy.