We’ve Reached The Medicare For All Tipping Point

With the health care crisis spiraling out of control, a pivotal majority of Americans now support a single-payer system.

By David Sirota, The Lever

When Medicare for All took center stage in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, opponents undercut growing support for the initiative by honing in on how it would raise taxes and eliminate health insurers. Those opponents succeeded: Polls at the time showed that while Americans conceptually supported the idea of a government-sponsored system, many didn’t want it to replace private insurance. Surveys showed support for Medicare for All dropped precipitously if the program were to eliminate private insurance.

That might have been the end of Medicare for All for another generation — except now the ACA is epically and undeniably failing to guarantee “affordable” health care. As private health insurers are now jacking up premiums for tens of millions of Americans, a new poll shows a huge majority of Americans now want Medicare for All — even if it entails eliminating private health insurers and raising taxes.

In the survey, 63 percent of Americans said they support Medicare for All, even knowing that it “would eliminate most private insurance plans and replace premiums with higher taxes.” That support was spread across the political spectrum — it’s garnered 78 percent support from Democrats, 64 percent support from independents, and 47 percent (a plurality) support from Republicans. In all, just 29 percent of voters were opposed.

To put the enormity of this change in perspective, consider that six years ago, polls showed that when people were told Medicare for All might eliminate private insurance, topline support for the idea typically dropped. One survey showed that just 13 percent of Americans would support Medicare for All if it eliminated private insurance. So these new numbers reflect a potential 50-point shift on that key question in just six years.

As Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) might say, that’s yuge. It’s also understandable: To many voters facing ever-higher bills, “eliminate private insurance” now sounds like “eliminate the faceless corporation burying me in paperwork, reducing my coverage, and raising my premiums.”

Of course, when looking at this new polling data, big caveats apply. Comparing different polls with different methodologies is not a perfect apples-to-apples poll comparison. More importantly, these new poll numbers come amid some momentary political asymmetry.

Americans are rightly changing and intensifying their views in response to health care price shocks. But that’s before there’s a Medicare for All bill moving ahead in Congress — which is to say, before the insurance industry has financed another multimillion-dollar ad campaign aiming to scare everyone about the prospect of “death panels” and other bogeymen if the government dares extend to everyone what the country already provides to seniors.

Would Medicare for All fare better in the 2028 Democratic primaries and have a real chance of passing with a new administration in 2029? It’s hard to say.