War Is Different Now

The entire global economy is a war-financing and war-producing machine.

I know, I know. On the one hand, it’s a clickbaity title. On the other hand…we’re all thinking it. Is this the beginning of World War III? You’d have to be pathologically detached from reality not to wonder, at this point, with a European capitol being shelled and refugees crowded on trains in scenes reminiscent of the last world war. This is all super real. So how bad could it really get?

The answer to that question — is this the beginning of World War III — goes like this: not yet, and hopefully never, but possibly.

Unfortunately for us, there are at least three ways I can see that this becomes a much larger conflict. And underneath them all is what I’ll describe as the doom loop of the global economy.

Yes, this is going to be dense and complicated. I think that we all need to be thinking intently about our futures right about now. Take a breath when you need to. This isn’t going to be easy or light reading.

Let’s call the first avenue inspiration. Demagogues and authoritarians around the globe feel the rules which once constrained them are slipping. They take inspiration from Putin. They feel that the West can’t fight them all at once — and it can’t really enforce the rules of the post-war order much anymore. China moves on Taiwan. India’s hypernationalist Modi does his worst in his region. Pretty soon, we’re in a world war. This is the least unlikely path for now, and so I won’t put too much time on it.