The Brazilian Election Isn't Over Yet

Lula won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election yesterday and should beat Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff later this month. But Bolsonaro and his allies outperformed expectations — and Brazil’s far right remains a potent threat to democracy.

By Olavo Passos de Souza, Jacobin

Yesterday, October 2, Brazilians went to the polling booths to decide their next president, 27 governors, a third of the Senate, 513 congresspeople, and thousands of state and local officials.

Signs supporting lula in Brazil's election

During the campaign, the left-wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva led in all polls against the far-right incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro. Though victory in the first round for Lula was never guaranteed, analysts were confident that Lula would hold a wide margin over his opponent, with other important positions, such as the governorships of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, also in play to be retaken by the Left.

However, Bolsonaro outperformed his own polling scores and secured a second-round runoff, pulling further ahead than expected in key states such as São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio. By the end of the day, Lula had 48.4 percent of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 43.2 percent.