Netanyahu must know Tehran will respond militarily to the attack on its embassy in Syria, the question is whether American troops will be a target.
by Paul R. Pillar, Responsible Statecraft
The latest Israeli heightening of violence in an already violent region presents the Biden administration with one of its biggest challenges yet in keeping the United States out of a new Middle East war.
Israel’s bombing of an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, killing a senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and several other Iranian officials in addition to at least four Syrian citizens, was a marked escalation. Besides being as much an act of aggression in Syria as many previous Israeli aerial attacks, hitting the embassy compound constituted a direct attack on Iran.
Iranian leaders will feel heavy pressure to respond forcefully. The extent of that pressure can be appreciated by imagining if the roles were reversed. If Iran had bombed an embassy of Israel or the United States, a violent and lethal response would be not just expected but demanded by politicians and publics alike.
In Iran, too, popular sentiment can play a similar role in such situations, as illustrated by the outpouring of public emotion when a U.S. drone strike assassinated prominent Revolutionary Guard commander Qassem Soleimani four years ago. In a more calculated vein, just as a need to “restore deterrence” is often heard as a justification for violent responses by the United States or Israel, so too can such calculations figure in Iranian decision-making.
Recent Posts
‘Total Amateur Hour’: FBI Official Says Antifa Is #1 Threat in US—But Can’t Say Where, Who, or What It Is
Take Action Now “Just a complete admission here that the entire ‘antifa’ threat narrative is totally manufactured by this administration,” said one…
Utah Leaders Are Hindering Efforts To Develop Solar Despite A Goal To Double The State’s Energy Supply
Take Action Now Utah Governor Spencer Cox signed bills that will make it more difficult and expensive to develop and produce solar energy, ending tax…
Report of the Independent Democratic Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward Israel
Take Action Now For release in connection with the winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee convening on December 11, 2025 in Los Angeles……
U.S. Realizes It Can Seize Boats After All
Take Action Now After months of extrajudicial killings in the waters off Venezuela, the Trump administration opted instead to capture an oil tanker.……