Netanyahu must know Tehran will respond militarily to the attack on its embassy in Syria, the question is whether American troops will be a target.
by Paul R. Pillar, Responsible Statecraft
The latest Israeli heightening of violence in an already violent region presents the Biden administration with one of its biggest challenges yet in keeping the United States out of a new Middle East war.
Israel’s bombing of an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, killing a senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and several other Iranian officials in addition to at least four Syrian citizens, was a marked escalation. Besides being as much an act of aggression in Syria as many previous Israeli aerial attacks, hitting the embassy compound constituted a direct attack on Iran.
Iranian leaders will feel heavy pressure to respond forcefully. The extent of that pressure can be appreciated by imagining if the roles were reversed. If Iran had bombed an embassy of Israel or the United States, a violent and lethal response would be not just expected but demanded by politicians and publics alike.
In Iran, too, popular sentiment can play a similar role in such situations, as illustrated by the outpouring of public emotion when a U.S. drone strike assassinated prominent Revolutionary Guard commander Qassem Soleimani four years ago. In a more calculated vein, just as a need to “restore deterrence” is often heard as a justification for violent responses by the United States or Israel, so too can such calculations figure in Iranian decision-making.
Recent Posts
Putin Warns Of ‘Direct’ War As U.S. Mulls Letting Ukraine Use Long-Range Western Missiles
Take Action Now “It is a question of deciding whether or not NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict,” said Russian…
Biden’s Legacy: The Decline Of Arms Control And Disarmament
Take Action Now The only remaining nuclear disarmament treaty—the New START Treaty—expires in February 2026, and there is no indication that U.S. and…
Both Presidential Candidates Agree: We Need To Stop Arresting People For Marijuana
Take Action Now Further proof that an issue once considered a political hot button has gone mainstream. By Paul Armentano, OtherWords At a time…
Here Are The Members Of Congress Invested In War
Take Action Now More than 50 members of Congress own stock in defense contractors whose profits are soaring from giant Pentagon budgets and…