Chatham House: We're F'ed And We Know It

By Daniel Quiggin, Kris De Meyer, Lucy Hubble-Rose, Antony Froggatt, ChathamHouse

[Chatham House is the UK’s leading think tank. They strive to summarize elite views at the intersection of government, business and academia on the most important issues of the day. This report most confirms what humanity already knows about the devastation of climate change right now. But it’s a significant addition to the roster of ‘consensus’ voices making it clear just how bad things are, and how much worse they are likely to get. — Progressive Hub]

At COP26, the governments of highly emitting countries will have a critical opportunity to accelerate emissions reductions through ambitious revisions of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). If emissions follow the trajectory set by current NDCs, there is a less than five per cent chance of keeping temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and less than one per cent chance of reaching the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Unless NDCs are dramatically increased, and policy and delivery mechanisms are revised accordingly, many of the climate change impacts described in this research paper are likely to be locked in by 2040, and become so severe they go beyond the limits of what nations can adapt to.