Are The U.S. And Russia Sleepwalking Into World War 3?

There’s strangely little discussion right now of the unbelievably dangerous situation in Ukraine. Joe Biden is under great pressure to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike deeper into Russia. That pressure is coming from both Democrats and Republicans, as well as from NATO allies. It’s also coming especially from the Labour prime minister of the U.K., Keir Starmer. Britain makes the missiles, so increasing the use of the missiles happens to be great for the British arms industry, and the company that makes them is excited about a “missile boom.” (Because we live in a deeply twisted world, the Ukraine war has been called a “showroom” or “arms fair” for weapons makers.)

Why is Biden having to be “pressured”? Because Biden has long been worried about the possibility of the U.S. and NATO being dragged into all-out war with Russia. Soon after the invasion, Biden said that “a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III. And something we must strive to prevent.” While there are good reasons to criticize Biden for his failure to pursue diplomatic options that might have prevented the war or ended it sooner, in this stance he is comparatively more sane than many people in Washington, who had urged him to “drop his ‘World War III’ red line,” i.e., to take greater risks of direct war between the world’s most heavily armed nuclear powers. Others have outright said that Biden needs to fight and win World War III against Russia and China’s “Axis of Evil,” meaning we should drive humanity toward a catastrophic nuclear conflagration that will wreck the entire world and possibly end human civilization.

What has happened over the course of the Ukraine war is this: the Biden administration has tested how much it can aid Ukraine in fighting Russia without triggering a U.S.-Russia war. The White House was concerned about actions that “would cross a ‘red line’ that would lead Russian President Vladimir Putin to dramatically up the ante, perhaps even to employ nuclear weapons.” Putin repeatedly warned against crossing these red lines, reminding NATO countries that he has a lot of nuclear weapons. Ukraine has crossed these red lines repeatedly. Wikipedia even now keeps a helpful list of Russia’s “red lines” that have been crossed. Russia did not in fact respond to the crossing of these lines by using nuclear weapons or retaliating against NATO countries, meaning that Ukraine has been “getting bolder about punching through Russian red lines” and the Biden administration has become more confident that it can ignore Putin’s threats and warnings. Russia is starting to recognize that “the repeated use of the nuclear threat is starting to lose its potency” since “Moscow’s red lines are constantly being crossed.”

That’s why those currently pressuring Biden to authorize the new use of the missiles inside Russia are telling him that he’s foolish to worry this will escalate the war. They believe Russia is just continuing to bluff when, for example, its deputy national security director threatens to turn Kyiv into a “molten gray mass” in response. Putin says that the authorization of the missile strikes inside Russia would be considered, by the Russian government, a direct NATO attack on Russia and thus a declaration of war. Putin’s spokesman has insisted that he means what he says, that the statement he made is “extremely clear” and “does not allow for any double readings,” imploring NATO countries to pay attention to it.