Is AIPAC Coming After Ilhan Omar?

A poll sent to Omar’s district tested the waters on a Democratic candidate backed by “a right-wing, pro-Israel group that is funded by Trump-supporting billionaires.”

A poll sent to constituents in Rep. Ilhan Omar’s district has the hallmarks of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s strategy.

The poll, sent earlier this month, first ran through the kinds of questions typical for a campaign testing the waters. The survey started by posing positive and negative questions about Omar and Ryan Winkler, a Democrat and former Minnesota state representative, on run-of-the-mill political grounds: how would voters rate Omar’s job performance based on her voting record on affordable housing and healthcare, or Winkler’s record on minimum wage and private prison legislation?

Then the poll tipped its hand. In a series of questions about “statements critics might make about Ilhan Omar,” the survey described Omar as “one of the most anti-Israel members of Congress,” cited her voting record against a resolution that condemned the October 7 attacks without mentioning Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians, and outlined her opposition to arms sales to Israel, then asked respondents to indicate how concerned this information makes them feel.

Then it asked respondents whether Winkler being backed by “a right-wing, pro-Israel group that is funded by Trump-supporting billionaires and has endorsed dozens of Republican members of Congress who support Trump and his MAGA agenda” raises any concerns.

Screenshots of the survey viewed by the Intercept showed no clear indication of who paid for the poll. Political operators familiar with AIPAC tacitcs, however, see the poll as a sign that AIPAC is laying the groundwork for challenging Omar in the midterm elections next year.

The group typically tests the waters by fielding polls before they commit to a race. By asking voters how they feel about Winkler even after getting the negative message that he is backed by a “right-wing, pro-Israel group” — a group like AIPAC — the group can learn whether backing him would do more harm than good in the district, and how much ground it would have to make up if voters viewed such a fact negatively.