Trump Will Be Even Worse For Labor Than Ronald Reagan Was

In the late 1990s, as AFL-CIO president John Sweeney led the federation’s ultimately failed program to boost union organizing, the phrase “organize or die” was standard rhetoric in labor leader speeches and commentary. Unions did not organize at scale, however, losing 1.9 million members since 2000, with union density (the percentage of all workers represented by unions) declining from 13.5 percent of the workforce to 10 percent in 2023.

Yet instead of dying a slow death, organized labor’s finances have actually flourished. Labor’s net assets (assets minus debt) grew from $11 billion in 2000 to $35 billion in 2023.

How did organized labor escape the “organize or die” theory of decline? Two key pillars have allowed unions to remain viable despite a steady decline in membership. But a second Donald Trump presidency could unravel both. For some sense of what that might look like, we can examine a previous right-wing administration that was a bloodbath for the labor movement: Ronald Reagan’s first term as president.

How have unions managed to survive over the past two decades, and in financial terms even do very well, despite the continued decline in union density? First, many unions have forged a relatively stable accommodation with their large, unionized employers over the last 30 years. In exchange for “labor peace” and stability, unionized companies have provided modest wage and benefit increases, steady dues income, and incremental union growth through corporate expansion. Indeed, since 2000, the strike weapon has been virtually retired as a tactic in labor-management relations (with the occasional flare-up like the Red for Ed strikes in 2018 – 19, or the 2023 strike surge).

Second, labor has survived due to its junior partnership with the Democratic Party. In exchange for billions of dollars in campaign expenditures and political ground operations, the Democrats have supported a wide range of legislative and regulatory initiatives that buttress many unions’ modest organizing and collective bargaining goals.